Renewal season, rising lender caution, and a fractured recovery — a broker’s playbook for the next 6–12 months
Canada’s housing picture is no longer a single headline. Over the last week we’ve seen stronger resales in Toronto alongside softening price indices, reports that lenders are starting to see early signs of stress in some portfolios, and repeated industry warnings that a meaningful renewal wave remains the central mortgage story for 2025–26. Together, those trends force a pragmatic response from brokers: prioritize clients, model scenarios, and focus on clear counsel.
What’s changed in the past six days
Toronto resale counts rose while the MLS price index stayed down — a mixed recovery that creates opportunities for qualified buyers but keeps valuation risk in play for lenders and appraisers. Concurrent reporting shows lenders watching impaired balances and fewer bidders, particularly in investor and condo segments, which raises underwriting and renewal considerations for those cohorts. And broker-facing outlets continue to push the same practical advice: engage early on renewals and show clients their options in real numbers.
Actionable steps for homeowners
- Start 90–120 days before maturity. Early talks unlock rate holds, promotional options, and time to compare.
- Ask for scenario modelling. A side-by-side of fixed vs blended vs variable shows the real monthly impact.
- Consider amortization tweaks. Extending amortization by a year or two lowers monthly payments—know the long-term interest trade-off.
- Check local dynamics. Where resales are rebounding but prices are soft, timing a purchase or refinance requires local market nuance.
Broker playbook — how to prioritize
- Segment your book by renewal shock (high, medium, low) and reach high-shock clients first.
- Use simple visuals (payment ladders, cumulative interest charts) to make choices obvious.
- Offer real-world alternatives (blended offers, temporary payment reduction plans) rather than abstract “rate shopping.”
- Flag regional risk pockets (investor condos, markets with falling price indices) and tailor advice.
Why this matters
The coming 6–12 months will show whether localized stress becomes broader strain. For now, data points indicate localized vulnerabilities rather than systemic collapse — but that’s little consolation to a household facing a big renewal jump. Brokers who act early, communicate plainly, and present tradeoffs will both reduce client stress and protect originations. The macro noise will keep changing; your job is to translate it into a clear plan for each client.
Closing
Renewals aren’t a single event — they’re a process. Plan early, model simply, and communicate often. In an uneven recovery, those steps are what turn a high-risk renewal into a manageable financial decision.
