Navigating Canada’s Mortgage Renewal Wave: A 2025 Survival Guide
Canada is entering a critical renewal period. A Bank of Canada analytical note forecasts that around 60% of homeowners will renew their mortgages in 2025–2026, with those renewing in 2025 facing an average 10% increase in monthly payments—and five-year fixed borrowers seeing 15–20% hikes . For the average homeowner with a $400,000 mortgage, that could mean hundreds of dollars in extra monthly payments—transforming renewal season into a financial stress test.
1. What’s Driving the Renewal Wave?
During the COVID crisis, rates fell to sub-1%, prompting many Canadians to lock in five-year fixed terms. But as those terms expire, many are confronting current market rates—resulting in payment shock. TransUnion data reveals mortgage payments have risen by an average of 25% since March 2022, affecting over 2 million borrowers .
2. Variable-Rate Borrowers: A Silver Lining
It’s not all dire: variable-rate mortgages with adjustable payments have seen relief. TD Economics reports these borrowers are experiencing 5–7% lower monthly costs in 2025 . Brokers should highlight this trend to clients who can tolerate flexible terms and want immediate cash flow relief.
3. Actionable Steps for Homeowners
- Engage Early – Contact clients at least 120 days before renewal to explore options.
- Blended Rates – Smooth out payment increases by combining old and new rates.
- Amortization Flexibility – Adding a year or two can reduce monthly costs without derailing goals.
- Consider Variable Products – Where timing or risk tolerance allow, variable rates can offer immediate relief.
4. Brokers: Elevate from Transactional to Advisory
This wave is your platform to prove your value.
- CRM-Driven Outreach: Prioritize high-shock renewals.
- Clear Comparisons: Provide side-by-side payment breakdowns.
- Beyond the Rate: Highlight value-adds—cashback deals, prepayment options, ongoing financial check-ins.
- Local Insights: Factor in region-specific market and rate trends when advising.
5. What Lies Ahead
Renewal stress isn’t fleeting. Bank of Canada notes that ~60% of mortgage holders are in for hikes through 2026 . Meanwhile, as rate cuts remain uncertain, and variable relief is limited to certain borrowers, strategic planning is essential.
Conclusion
Canada’s mortgage renewal wave is significant—but manageable. Mortgage professionals who lead with early engagement, blended solutions, amortization flexibility, and clear scenarios will ease client stress and secure long-term loyalty. In today’s market, being a trusted advisor matters more than ever.
