Guiding Clients Through 2025’s Mortgage Renewal Wave: Strategy Amid Rising Stress

Canada is at the brink of a critical mortgage renewal period. A Bank of Canada analytical note dated July 22 reports that around 60 percent of mortgages maturing in 2025–26 will carry higher monthly payments—roughly a 10 percent average increase in 2025 and up to 20 percent for fixed-rate holders compared to December 2024 levels. Meanwhile, Ontario’s mortgage delinquency rate climbed to 0.22 percent in Q1 2025—Toronto reaching 0.23 percent—the highest in over a decade, hinting at rising borrower stress.

1. Why This Renewal Year Matters

Homeowners who locked in below‑1 percent rates during the pandemic now face market offers near 5 percent. This shift isn’t just about rates—it’s more than a chart. It impacts cash flow, household stability, and long‑term planning.

2. Tools for Homeowners

• Early Engagement: Speak with clients at least 120 days ahead of renewal to explore loyalty promotions or blended-rate solutions.
• Blended Bridges: Combining old and new rates can smooth payment increases.
• Amortization Tweaks: Extending amortization by one to two years offers payment flexibility at modest long-term cost.
• Variable-Rate Options: Suitable for clients with tolerance for variability, this can relieve immediate pressure by as much as 7 percent.

3. How Brokers Can Lead

• Proactive CRM Alerts: Identify high-shock renewals and tailor outreach.
• Clear Scenario Modeling: Present side-by-side fixed, blended, and variable outcomes.
• Emphasize Value Beyond Rate: Highlight features like cash-back, prepayment freedom, and financial check-ins.
• Localized Insight: Ontario trends—especially rising delinquencies—should guide renewal recommendations.

4. Market Signals

Ontario’s rising delinquencies suggest increasing financial fragility among borrowers, particularly heading into renewal season. At the same time, Bank of Canada indicators suggest elevated payment burdens are here for the medium term. Together, they demand a shift from reactive rate-shopping to relationship-driven counseling.

Conclusion

The 2025 renewal wave presents both risk and opportunity. The rate shock is real—but homebuyers and homeowners equipped with advice, blended solutions, amortization flexibility, and variable options can emerge resilient. Mortgage brokers who lead with early, personalized strategy and clear, data-informed messaging will turn renewal anxiety into a strengthening of trust. In a shifting rate environment, that trust is your greatest asset.