Navigating Canada’s Mortgage Renewal Wave: Your 2025 Guide

Canada’s mortgage landscape is entering a pivotal renewal season. A Bank of Canada analysis finds nearly 60 percent of mortgages maturing in 2025–26 will see payment increases—roughly 10 percent for 2025 renewals and up to 20 percent for many five‑year fixed holders. With over two million homeowners impacted, this wave demands proactive engagement. Meanwhile, global trade uncertainties and sticky inflation suggest the Bank will hold the policy rate at 2.75 percent—cuts appear unlikely. RBC confirms this view, signaling stable or slightly elevated rates ahead.

Why Renewal Season Matters

Ultra‑low pandemic rates left many locked into five‑year terms below 1 percent. As those terms expire, borrowers now face market rates near 5 percent. On a $400,000 mortgage, this could mean an additional $300–$350 monthly—tightening household budgets and prompting reevaluation of financial plans.

Homeowner Toolkit

1. Proactive Outreach (120+ Days Before Renewal)
   Start renewal conversations early to secure loyalty promotions and potentially get rate holds.
2. Blended‑Rate Bridges
   Mix existing and new rates to smooth renewal payment spikes.
3. Amortization Adjustments
   Extending amortization by 1–2 years can reduce monthly payments without long-term cost detriment.
4. Variable‑Rate Alternatives
   For clients open to market variability, variable-rate options may offer immediate relief and flexibility.

Broker Best Practices

• CRM-Driven Prioritization: Flag clients facing high renewal impact for targeted outreach.
• Side-by-Side Scenarios: Provide clear, comparable breakdowns of fixed, blended, and variable options.
• Value-Add Services: Emphasize prepayment flexibility, financial check‑ins, and cash‑back incentives.
• Local Market Insight: Tailor advice by province or region, reflecting varying housing and affordability dynamics.

Market Outlook

The Bank of Canada is expected to hold its policy rate at 2.75 percent through July 30 given persistent core inflation and global uncertainty. Analysts from RBC echo that further cuts are unlikely. This signals a shift away from chasing headline rate cuts toward strategy-driven renewal planning.

Conclusion

While Canada’s 2025 renewal wave poses financial stress, it’s manageable with the right approach. Homeowners can ease shocks through early dialogue, blended-rate bridges, amortization flexibility, and selective variable-rate options. Brokers who adopt a proactive, data-informed blend of personalized guidance and service stand to deepen client relationships and build long-term loyalty. In today’s mortgage landscape, your insight and support are more critical than ever.